Primary study
Our Own Picks
EXAMPLE DATA / PROPOSED RULESMatch-day sports. Buy the cheaper side at 30–65¢, hold to settlement. Flat $25 stakes, maximum 6 open. Model a 2-second delay and all applicable fees.
Assumptions, not verified executionIndependent Polymarket research · Paper only
Good habits.
Honest records.
Our own Polymarket picks. A public paper-trading record, with every loss shown. No cherry-picked winners. Just the process and the evidence.
No real moneyNo hidden losses
Explore the example ledger ↓The research bench
Different hypotheses. Separate records.Research lesson
Copy Sim
Whale mirroring: the example illustrates how delay can turn an apparent edge negative. Not a verified performance claim.
EXAMPLE DATA−$18.75 illustrative net
Risk lesson
Certainty
EXAMPLE DATA96% wins. Still losing.
An illustrative lesson: many small wins can be outweighed by rare large losses and fees. Not an actual measured win rate.
Exploratory study
Learned Whale
Study behaviour, not just a wallet address. Test timing, selection and costs before trusting a signal.
Research onlyPublic track record
EXAMPLE DATASelected fictional rows for layout only. Every settled loss belongs in the real ledger.
| Market / fictional | Entry | Stake | Outcome | Net after costs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons vs. Harbor · YES | 50¢ | $25.00 | Won | +$24.25 |
| Metro vs. United · NO | 40¢ | $25.00 | Lost | −$25.75 |
| North vs. City · YES | 60¢ | $25.00 | Won | +$15.92 |
| Coastal vs. Valley · NO | 45¢ | $25.00 | Lost | −$25.75 |
Chart is schematic, not calculated from these selected rows. Costs are fictional, not a fee quote.
How a trade is decided
EXAMPLE DATA / PROPOSED METHODFind the match
Match-day sports only. Check market rules, settlement source and available liquidity.
Apply the rule
Consider the cheaper side within 30–65¢. Reject anything outside the predefined research criteria.
Price the friction
Use a 2-second delay, $25 stake and a 6-open cap. Count applicable fees, spread and slippage. Record unavailable fill evidence.
Publish the outcome
Hold to settlement. Log wins, losses and costs. Keep studies separate; never rewrite old fills.